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Growing apprehensions exist about the possibility of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has escalated in recent weeks.

What Did Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a heated verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his country's sea access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and army chief the army commander have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and hinted at the wish to take it by force.

Recently, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

Despite persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to short statements on online platforms from Information Minister the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for maritime entry describing it as "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a policy of reclaiming lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on recently that efforts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

There have been few indications of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, state television has shown completion events of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The director of personnel division of the defense force, General Hachalu, stated recently in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Previous Background of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, the territory was governed by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the UK forces before evolving into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this arrangement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then confirmed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the exact location of their mutual frontier, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Although this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries continued at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two agreed to a statement that the war was finished – a move that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet ties have later worsened again.