A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
