Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”